Theory of a "Trick"

The necessary condition for using the theory of a “trick” is that players are to have insufficient information about each other. In this case the “trick” consists in guessing the intentions of the adversary on condition of hiding one’s own intentions: a positive “trick” and a negative “trick”. The tactics of every player is to be very flexible, and one and the same “trick” should not be used for many times, otherwise it will become “tactics” and will revert, like a boomerang, back to its user. The player should strive to modify his game according to the reaction of his adversary by making the most successful choice for this situation: hence comes the probability of probabilities.

Oscar Morgenstern (born in 1902) gave an example of a successful choice in the situation unsuccessful by itself. The example was based on one of the stories about Sherlock Holmes. Being chased by professor Moriarty, he took a train heading from London to Dover through Canterbury. But while getting on the train, he noticed that Moriarty has also taken this train. Holmes knew that if he set off simultaneously with Moriarty, he would certainly be killed. He had to get to Dover alone, in order to embark on the steamer that crossed the channel. This was his objective. The following variants are possible:

a) Holmes gets off in Dover;

b) Holmes gets off in Canterbury;

c) Moriarty gets off in Canterbury;

d) Moriarty gets off in Dover. The outcome, in Holmes’ opinion, can be:

1) complete success: ас

2) partial success: bd

3) failure: ad or bс.

These three outcomes, in the point of view of Holmes’ preferences, sequentially decrease as those worthy of the choice, the last one being the worst. Moriarty’s system of preferences is opposite to that of Holmes. Immediately evident is the difficulty of choice due to lack of information. The decision both for Holmes and Moriarty is the result of a random choice that plays the role of a defensive tactics. Both of them are well-prepared, and both alertly wait for the smallest neglect of the adversary in order to attack at once. But apart from this possible (accidental) mistake, the chance rules the game. Thus we get what G. von Neuman (born in 1903) revealed.

We can mathematically express the game before its beginning by introducing probabilistic preferences of both players: for instance, Pr(a) = p; Pr(b) = l – p Pr(c) = q; Pr(d) = l – q.

Then the probabilities of various outcomes (moves) are calculated with the help of rules of compound possibilities: Рr(ас) = р * q; Pr(bc) = (1 – р) * q;

Pr(ad) = р(1 – q); Pr(bd) = (1 – р) * (1 – q),where: Pr(ad или bc) = р(1 – q) + q(1 – р) = p + q – 2pq.

But these probabilities are initially unknown to players. For example, Holmes does not know q, but even if he knew q, his choice would not become less probabilistic. Every player acts, meditating on the possible move of the adversary, and at the moment previous calculations represent the problem well, making an instant estimation of probabilities for p and q.

The practical value of the threshold d, for which the alternative of “success” with probability d and death with probability 1 – d is preferred to “certain defeat”, depends on the boldness of the famous English detective.

The game theory finds application also in the economic life for strategic calculations. But the problems that arise in this case are quite difficult…

© Copyright 2006-2007 http://www.Bonus-Map.com

Breaking the Bondage of Addiction

Addictions today have become more common than we dare to accept. Many types of addictions have become socially acceptable, in these morally and spiritually bankrupt times. Good things when misused can turn into addictions.

What is Addiction?

It is dependency on a particular substance or behaviour which is impossible to break without timely intervention. It destroys the person, demoralizes the family and all those associated with him.

Society has a general tendency to consider different kinds of substance abuse as addiction, while ignoring certain behaviour patterns that are equally addictive. Food, shopping, gambling, work, or sex can turn to behaviour addictions and create problems that are just as destructive as substance abuse.

• Workaholics would be shocked if told that work has become their addiction. They believe that frenetic activity is good for mental health and wellbeing. People want to carve out positions of power and honour through their professional accomplishments. What starts as a worthy ambition soon grows into an addiction. Without work they feel enervated and depressed.

• Food becomes an emotional pacifier to satisfy longings, loneliness or low self esteem. People eat when under stress. The act of digesting the food switches off that part of the brain mechanism that makes them tense. The rise of serotonin when food is taken makes them feel good. Those who live alone and are sad or depressed are vulnerable. One woman who was eating all the time said, “I miss my husband, and my stomach does not know the difference between hunger and love.” Frenzy feeding is an addiction. It is a vicious cycle. When a depressed person snacks, his blood sugar rises and he feels good. But insulin shoots up in the blood and after a while, blood sugar falls. So he feels depressed again and reaches for a hot chocolate or a cookie.

• Gambling: Lotteries, playing cards, number games, casino games, betting at the races or even cricket matches and other sporting events can become addictive. Even losing money doesn’t deter them. They believe that luck is just around the corner. The adrenaline rush overshadows the guilt of money lost and debts piling up.

• Shopaholics are compulsive buyers. Whenever they are angry or frustrated, they find release in purchasing a pair of shoes or an expensive dress, irrespective of the money and time wasted. It makes them snap out off their moods.

• Relationships: Some people develop an over dependence on a particular person to make them feel complete or fulfilled. This may lead to stalking, threatening or harming the very person they claim to love.

• Sexual addiction is when the need for sex becomes a compulsive obsession whether marital, extramarital or same sex. 44% of sex addicts are embarrassed by what they do, but can’t help themselves nor will they seek treatment. Fetishes, pornography, rape, frottage (pawing women) flashing, are some of the ways by which they get their orgasm. This addiction is to the neurochemical changes that occur during sex. Sex addiction in women is becoming a major problem.

• Mood altering chemicals like cocaine, heroin, LSD, amphetamines, ketamine, and prescription drugs like cough syrups, sedatives, tranquillizers are habit forming. Even caffeine (one cup of coffee contains 150mgs of caffeine) is addictive. Drugs provide a feeling of well being and a false sense of power and control.

• Alcohol is a threat to modern civilization. With free availability, younger age groups are becoming hooked on alcohol. Alcoholism is said to decrease the life span of a person by twelve years. It is a depressant that affects the central nervous system immediately. No doubt it temporarily reduces tension and brings about relaxation. But in the long run, it destroys a person mentally and physically.

• Smoking is a habit very difficult to kick. It has damaging effects on liver, heart and is implicated in the cause of cancer.

All addictions, whether behavioural or chemical, are destructive. They gradually rob one of will power or self control. With drugs and alcohol, the body becomes tolerant to small amounts. So, larger quantities are needed. Mixing of drugs enhances potency, but also increases dangers. Health deteriorates. There is loss of control and inability to manage one’s affairs. Even routine jobs are difficult to perform. Behaviour becomes erratic.

Causes of Addiction:

1. Friends or family members may introduce the young impressionable teen to a glass of beer or a cigarette. This may be the beginning of a love for these substances. Recently, the case of a brandy guzzling child of five was reported. His parents started giving him brandy every day to ward off asthmatic attacks.

2. Keeping wrong company. Peer pressure can be very persuasive.

3. Disorganized home environment where parents are poor role models. There is no love, warmth or appreciation of a sensitive child. Parents may quarrel frequently or there may be domestic violence.

4. Poor and unsafe neighborhoods where drunkenness, violence and abusive behaviour is a way of life.

5. Lack of direction with no moral standards to live by. Young people can be easily influenced into wrong ways.

6. Glorification of alcohol, drugs and vices through films, TV, advertisements.

7. Easy availability of alcohol and drugs.

How to break the bondage of Addiction:

• By first admitting that one has a problem with either substances or behaviour; that life is fully out of control; that there is loss of dignity.

• By seeking help from trained counselors or psychiatrists. They will help to get to the root of the problem – Injustice? Fear? Worthlessness? Anger? Life is not a bed of roses.

Everybody has problems, but one must learn to deal with them without the aid of substances. It is important to be conscious of one’s vulnerabilities.

• Approach for alcohol and substance abuse is multidisciplinary. It needs admission to a facility dealing exclusively with these problems. Medical measures will involve detoxification and treatment of withdrawal symptoms.

Psychological management will be through:

1. Counseling individually, by which he is psychologically conditioned to stay away from drugs or alcohol. Each member of his family must also cooperate with the addict’s treatment, through love, understanding and compassion.

2. Group therapy will help the addict realize that he is not alone and that there are others in a similar situation. Here there is mutual understanding, acceptance, sharing of individual problems and sympathy.

3. Sociotherapy involves teaching the addict effective methods of adjustment to normal life. He should not be left in a high risk environment. Community reinforcements like recreation clubs, Alcoholics Anonymous, and job availability will be helpful.

Rehabilitation can be a long and hard battle depending on whether the addiction is to a substance or behaviour. It depends on the addict’s desire and determination to be cured, and the support he receives from his loved ones. Relapses may occur. But there must be the will to start all over again. Sometimes it may be a life long struggle especially with drug addicts and alcoholics. Therefore finding support groups is important.

Along with therapy, dependence on God is essential. A daily walk with God will strengthen a person enough to surmount the injustices of life, and dispel lurking fears.

The seeds of addiction are within all human beings. We need to periodically examine ourselves and see if there are things we find difficult to let go, and which have the potential to turn into addictions.

What Does ‘Backing a Team to Win’ Mean in Betting?

‘Backing a team to win’ is a common term used in betting. In the olden times, only this kind of betting used to take place. Traditionally, a bookmaker was involved in such type of a betting process. Actually, he/she was the one to carry out the whole transaction for you. It is here that these bookmakers tried their best to deceive the innocent people. Now is the time, when everything is done without any hassles over the Internet. There are plenty of online betting exchange sites that allow you to indulge in bet exchanging and change your destiny. Bookmakers are now out of the scene and that is a plus point for bettors.

In simple terms, backing can be defined as the act of making your selection and betting on it. When you back a team to win, you place your bet predicting that your chosen horse will win in the race. You can place bet on other sports as well. The main thing to be emphasized here is that you predict the outcome of the game as to who will be the winner and place bet on it. When you exchange bets, you have the liberty to demand a higher price. For doing this, all you need to do is simply click on the back button and fill the figure of your choice. Once you have entered the figure revealing your bet, it will then shift to the lay section. If your bet price matches with the laying price of other bettor, your bet will be placed. In other case, if there is nobody to lay your selection, then you will have to either lower down your bet price or take what has been offered. It all depends on how enthusiastic you are and how you perceive things.

Let us try to understand the above mentioned concept with the help of an example. Let us suppose that the best offer in the market for draw at France vs Italy is 2.80. At this point of time, you need to go through betting exchange rates. Let us consider that you succeed in finding an odd bet of 2.90. Now this kind of a bet can certainly be considered and you can think of backing or buying the bet. The procedure is almost similar to what was practiced earlier when bookmakers were involved.

In case it happens that you select an event, make selection, place bet and make a clear cut mention of your stake but are not satisfied with the final result, then you have the option of back order available with you. Let us consider for a while that you are happy with the available odds and your desire is to bet at odds 3.10, then you can place the order for backing at 3.10 by putting 100 pounds on stake. In this situation, you will have to wait for the time till you succeed in finding a punter who is ready to draw the match at 3.10 by laying 100 pounds. If someone is ready to match your bet deal then your bet can be placed. If you find a bettor who is ready to put 30 pounds on stake at 3.10, then for the left 70 pounds, you need to look for another bookmaker who can lay bet at 3.10. This is how backing is done.

It is Better to Be a Betting Affiliate Rather Than Endangering Your Money in Betting

Online sport betting has paved a way for the entire betting industry to flourish and grow massively. There are several reasons for such an immense popularity in this particular field. It actually created a way through which it can be delocalized and accessible globally.

Nowadays, these kind of betting systems have an international attention and have a diversity of customers willing to invest their money to bet. This makes the current betting industry increasingly feasible. Billions of dollars started to come in through the blessing of internet and the industry is therefore growing as never before.

You can put your money on betting and earn through your right, knowledgeable and intelligent prediction about the outcome of the particular sport you are betting on.You van even earn dollars by being a sports betting affiliate.

Betting affiliate is a person who acts as an accomplice and works for the sport betting sites or organizations to bring the paying customers. When these people register for a bet play, the affiliates are rewarded with their share or profit. So, as a betting accomplice, you can verbally invite someone to use your particular sport betting website and you can have your profit as you bring more cash flow to your website

After all it is better to be an affiliate rather than risking your valuable money by directly stepping into the betting process and placing a bet. Being a betting affiliate can be a good idea to earn profit if you are not interested in bet plays.